Into The Fold – The IMF & Ukraine

Headlines have alerted us that the IMF has returned to its rescue bail out package for Ukraine, initially delayed due to the outbreak of conflict. Already the fund had delivered $4.5 billion worth of the initial program, and so the funds total commitment will reach a healthy $22 billion.

According to Lagarde they are “demonstrating courage to reform”, this being her justification for reviving the financial aid package. It is critical to note here that alongside this package will come separate EU and US loan pledges, as we try to ensure that economic progress is not politicised in a volatile region.

True a ceasefire has been agreed but this fragile agreement is no assurance that tensions in the region will subside. This fragility is going to come through when the government looks to restructure its debt obligation. It is also clear that the holders of Ukraine’s sovereign debt will not be treated equally, as Russia is one of them.

This seems to have become an endless saga, which the IMF has now decided to contribute to. One may also provide a critique of the IMF in that there is a danger with the present levels of corruption this financial aid package may be mishandled to an equal scale to that of Greece. While also considering a double standard created through the IMF being political in the willingness to provide aid to Ukraine, and yet want to hold Greece on a tight leash with its new government which is looking to break free from the shackles of its creditors.

Copyright Almog Adir © 2015 · All Rights Reserved · My Website

Eurozone Round-Up

No surprises this morning as the Bundesbank has slashed the German growth forecast to 1%. This has followed the past few months where there has been tangible uncertainty about Germany’s macroeconomic vision. With criticism coming from those suggesting that Germany has regularly failed to provide a level of investment, which would lead any kind of recovery, coupled with bullish behaviour in keeping its high trade surplus.

The interdependence of the Eurozone has become increasingly clear since the crises, and it was well understood that Germany maintaining its surplus had constrained the growth of the weaker Eurozone members. The German hopes were that this would still help drive growth, but shown through interdependence the German economy is slumping.

Continuing with the lack of surprises the European Central Bank informed us that the expected inflation for this year would be 0.5% with a forecast of 0.7% for 2015. The last target of the ECB that I can recall was that of inflation being 2%. Germany is clearly causing a whole host of trouble due to its economic weight on the Eurozone, but shows no insight into the potential change of policy as they are still predicting growth to rally to 1.6%. Jens Weidmann throws some spurious figures and he then claims to be surprised by a lack of performance, although nothing has been out of the ordinary for the past two years.

Moreover, it is clear that the only person in the ECB that needs more support is Mario Draghi. I would go as far as to claim that he is the Eurozone’s only hope, with his desire to pursue quantitative easing in a strategic and defined manner in aiding structural reform is essential. With an overall aim of returning the size of the ECB’s balance sheet to that of 2012. It is fair to state that asset purchases do not have defined results, but it would be an improvement in comparison to Weidman’s insistence on a more passive approach. I am not the biggest advocate of quantitative easing, and more in line with structural reform to European labor law and the ease of businesses, but I believe that Draghi is representing an interventionist mixture that will lead Europe to sustained and reliable growth.

It will be interesting to see how the year closes off and what 2015 has to offer in terms to tangible change in our approach to modern economies which no longer fall in line with some of the traditional approaches still used and insisted upon.

Copyright Almog Adir © 2014 · All Rights Reserved · My Website

Big Data

With the growth of computing power available to us, we are not only able to manipulate data in new ways but also take into account vast amounts of it. Furthermore, there is increasing comprehensiveness in the collection of data not to mention the detail we are now able to delve into.

I will start with some more traditional date – demographics. We have already been extremely competent in dealing with a wide variety of data, starting at the point of collection up to manipulation. This has been the manner in which we examine the development of nations and whether we are making progress. In the past couple of years however there has been the growth of composite indexes, which look to tell us a lot more, notably HDI becoming IHDI with an accounting for inequality. We are able to develop data this way due to the increasing ease of collecting it.

Here we may differentiate however between developed and developing countries, as access to the internet and mediums of communication leads to even more niche data being collected, allowing us to examine our lives at a micro level while still in macro scale. The best available example of this is London; the BBC recently published images of London in terms of data maps. This verifies the extent to which all elements of our lives are being put into data in a form that may be analyzed and visualized.

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This data map shows luminance of photos taken of tourist attractions upload to the popular photo sharing website Flickr. While it is true that not everyone will use the photo sharing website, or share their photos, we can still see what kind of tourist traffic certain areas get. The map not only showing popular destinations but also routes that may be taken between destinations, the above is only an excerpt of a London wide map. This is a level beyond info-graphics and a type of data that would not be gained through taking a census.

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The data map above shows the route taken of daily commutes between the Home Counties and London. This gives an idea of the most popular travel routes, and where the typical commuting population resides. Furthermore, it shows the willingness of people to commute specific distances. A step beyond this would consider the tube travel routes, and those travelling by car or bus (which could theoretically be achieved by considering those who pay congestion charge). The step further taken here is the data for the exit of London train stations shown below:

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This gives a more in-depth look at how people travel, and where they travel. The complexity of this data is made more tangible through the map, however in this we could consider CO2 emissions, cost of travel, and a whole host of other factors. This type of traffic data is exceptional in where it may be taken, giving us a level of insight previously not afforded by simple census data.

We can even go into a niche understanding of specific areas, in this example looking at twitter traffic in regards to the popularity of London football clubs:

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The growth of big data is what I believe will take economics to the next level of understanding of human behavior and decision-making. Think of the amount of data social networks such as Facebook and Twitter hold about users, or Google in regards to popular searches and specific search traits of people in a given country. Not only is the Internet providing a better image of our lives through data, but also there is increasing amount of data collected from practical activity. Take the increasing use of black boxes in cars, giving information about average speed, intensity of braking, time of driving, etc.

This type of data has many applications, but I believe it will be the most useful to microeconomics. As it is the area where we have to leave most things as theoretical based on at times loose relationships, this depth of data provides the opportunity to delve further into our behavior. Take for example the classic work or shirk scenario, considering leisure hours and potential pay offs.

As an economic community I feel there is a movement towards ensuring that a large variety of data is made publicly available. Of note, Christine Lagarde announced today in Washington D.C. that all of the IMF’s data will be available for free online from the 1st of January. Meaning that there will be an even greater plethora of data to pick and choose from.

Sources:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29915801

All images are subject to copyright – London: The Information Capital by James Cheshire and Oliver Uberti

 

Copyright Almog Adir © 2014 · All Rights Reserved · My Website

The Patent Dilemma

In simple terms patent law is frustrating. There is a strong rational argument for keeping patents and abolishing them. Those who innovate deserve some kind of compensation for their efforts, however even temporary monopoly leads to inefficiency and does not best benefit society. In the following I will consider the arguments for and against patents.

There are four central arguments that were used to justify the patent system of the 19th century. Taken from the book “The Patent System and Inventive Activity” by H.I. Dutton.

The Natural-Law Thesis

This thesis is based on the assumption that individuals have a natural right to property of their own ideas. Using others ideas was tantamount to theft as it was private property. Even supporters of the patent system would not go far to advance this argument. William Hindmarch noted that an inventor couldn’t have any natural right to prevent another person from making or using a similar invention summarises the breakdown of this thesis, on the basis that being loosely defined no boundaries are set as to what is a unique and individual idea.

Reward by Monopoly Thesis

The base argument of this thesis is that inventors should be rewarded according to the usefulness of their invention, since market forces may not always guarantee it. Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill were patrons of this argument as he noted the importance of the rule of law, and the institutional framework, which corrected market failure.

This is beneficial because allowing inventors monopoly ensured a period where they would gain sufficient return for the effort, without this protection competitors could in theory lower their costs at no cost. Introducing the free riding problem to the benefit of others inventions. In any case there was the argument they were harmless, market forces would determine the profitability from the invention, if it were a useless invention then there would be no reward.

Jeremy Bentham also distinguished between two categories of labor. In that there was the physical variety whereby it could be imitated with similar reward. Then the skilled variety where progress would reduce cost of production, rather than simply add to production.

Monopoly Profit Thesis

Private rewards was a clear incentive to invent, it differs from the rewards argument as it concerns itself with the duration and exclusiveness of the monopoly. Noting that it is economic growth for society that is ultimately desired. So in this sense growth and private profit would go hand in hand. There is evidence for this link in that many claimed that patents were integral to the creation of the most valuable inventions.

There was also the aspect of the speed at which innovation was carried out when patents were under use, this applied to foreigners and domestic inventors as the patent system enabled both equally to pursue invention, while securing the industrial basis of the economy.

Exchange-for-Secrets Thesis

This was based on the 18th century idea of contract, whereby a bargain occurred as one received protection and the other received knowledge. This thesis emphasised the importance of disclosure. This theory was not concerned with output but rather the dissemination of information of the existing technologies.

This had led to the more complex nature of patents, requiring full disclosure of the technology or inventions in a specification, in order for law officers to make provisions for the patent, established in 1734, and emphasised in 1778. Simply put by John Farey patent is the price of disclosure.

Anti-Patent

The greatest fear about patents was the manner in which monopoly was pursued, noting the particular evils associated with monopoly to ward off the use of patents. The counter-argument was rather that patents had brought what was private discovery into the common, and that just because the monopoly existed did not mean that market would demand it, or that an artificial price increase could be maintained. There was also the notion by William Spence that monopoly prompted a specific type of competition.

The main ideology behind the anti-patent movement was on the basis of free trade and the emancipation of industry. This had gained better grounding after the Corn Laws were repealed and the navigation acts took place.

  • Dangers of monopoly, negative effects on workers, manufacturers, etc.
  • No longer necessary due to a mature economy, firms able to compete normally without special privileges
  • The Economist argued it was immoral and economically unsound
  • The lottery nature of patents, whoever got the idea first by chance
  • The inefficiency of how patents were administered, and the lack of protection they actually offered is the main factor that put off inventors.

Against Intellectual Property – Boldrin & Levine

The example of James Watt’s new engine shows the limitations of patents, after initially having to spend six months obtaining a patent, he then spent time combating off rival inventors, to which the patent was then extended. Then after a period of commercial production his advanced engine had only sold 449 units of the 2250 steam engines around. A patent also limited him with the technology he required being the property of James Pickard.

This situation effectively describes Watt as not only an inventor but able to exploit the legal system, noting that his partner had strong connections in parliament. The legal system was used to limit competition, with evidence of limited adoption of steam engine innovation due to Watts’s monopoly. It is also worth noting that Watt spent more time on legal matters rather than inventing. This is summarised as rent seeking behaviour; this is shown through the patent extension that was not needed but favourable for Watt. In the conventional monopoly manner high prices prevented others from entering the market.

Most often attributed to the patent system are the evils of monopoly, corrupt rent seeking, legal suppression of innovation, reduced economic growth, and the los of personal freedom. It is argued that innovation would thrive in the absence of intellectual monopoly. This is brought up next to the concept of free trade and what used to be extreme protectionism. With the authors arguing that today there is the violation of intellectual property laws in that consumers desire cheap books, music, etc. in convenient format and are willing to violate law for it.

The legal framework is as follows in levels of protection of intellectual property: Patents, Copyrights, and Trademarks. Copyright tends to the specific, whereas patents provide broad protection over a general idea. The Right of Sale is a fair concept in that inventors should be able to profit from their work, the right to control however results in prosecution carried out by government.

Intellectual monopoly may be denoted as the right of the owner of the intellectual property to dictate how the purchaser uses the idea and or limiting them. Concept of first mover advantage, should still command a fair premium on the market? Economists favour competition over monopoly on the basis of freedom of contract and well-defined property rights. Shrink-wrap agreements are effectively enforcing collusive contracts. Their argument suggests that the right of sale should be present but then whoever completes a legal purchase and owns a copy now has the right to use the technology however they would like to. The law inhibits the potential of creativity. Similar analogy created between intellectual property and trade restrictions, looking at the transmission of goods being superior under free trade. The reward for invention argument is limited.

Milton Friedman notes the dangers of occupational licensure, but makes a notable point in that there seems to be support for such laws, as the producer group will always be more concentrated then the consumer group (Capitalism and Freedom, Page 143).


The outline of these arguments shows that there is validity in either approach, making the next requirement a look at examples. But rather than making a solution clearer, it goes on to complicate it further.

Take one of the most popular examples: pharmaceutical companies. We understand that there are high costs associated with the research and development of new drugs, therefore firms would like to be compensated for their effort and innovation. However, this tends to price drugs at a level unaffordable for the vast majority of society. Then on the consumer side this means the lack of consumption of a merit good. In the United Kingdom the National Health Service subsidises the cost of drugs in order to ensure and encourage consumption, such as free drugs for those in full time education. Nevertheless, this is limited as the NHS must choose which drugs to subsidise, and what degree to subsidise them. Firms may aggressively price increasing the burden on the NHS, this is often the case with brand new drugs.

Now if we consider paracetamol, the moment the patent ended the market was flooded with new brands all delivering the same product. Now a consumer can get paracetamol of 500mg pills from Sainsbury’s at £0.55, this effectively allows it to be consumed by anyone. The low price a consequence of extreme competition, and economies of scale resulting in mass production.

If we take the idea of altruism and greatest social benefit, we would look to reduce the comprehensiveness of patents. This brings forward the question of how much innovation should be rewarded it terms of length of patent, we leave the market forces to decide how well the innovator fares, but regardless it may stop others from innovating, lead to legal disputes, and tends towards what we see as the “evils of monopoly”. I personally believe that the anti-patent argument tends to over emphasise first-mover advantage, as in a world where communication occurs at increasingly higher speeds, information can be spread quicker then a firm may act.

Copyright Almog Adir © 2014 · All Rights Reserved · My Website

A Wealth of Ideas

Competitive history suggest that only the best and most viable economic ideas should become dominant in practice and taught, whereas a cumulative view suggests that we must consider all currently existing theories and studies in order to take a holistic view of economics. In this it is important to establish the subjective nature of economics; we are ultimately privy to pluralism within the subject as there is not always necessarily a right or wrong.

The competitive argument states that unviable concepts be discarded, but what are the criteria for success. We are not entirely sure that our current mainstream economics currently work as they should; the financial crisis is testament to that. Growth figures aside, the term recovery is used too loosely, and we were never too sure how to go about recovery in the first place, should it have been austerity or fiscal expansion?

In this the cumulative view may appear to be stronger, with the inclusion of unorthodox theories, and a greater willingness to compare policy and approaches we may be more able to approach economics as it is: a subjective subject. Through the use of empiricism and statistics we can introduce a mixed approach of both competitive and cumulative, as our understanding changes over time, on the basis of differing economic conditions. Thus a combined view can consider the unorthodox approach while still maintaining a source of strong evidence for it. We have a tendency to flock to mainstream economics as a given way of achieving our economic aims of growth and development. However, if we already appreciate that each nation has different economic conditions, than how can we allow there to be a mainstream approach?

This was already highlighted in the 1990s and early 2000s through the currency liberalisation and lack of debt relief for Sub-Saharan economies, which was being preached by the IMF through the backing of “mainstream” economics. Their disregard for a more personal approach towards the individual economies shows how there is a need for cumulative economic thought; we have a wealth of ideas, all of which have some kind of importance in our approach to the subject and its wider implications.   Moreover, if we can appreciate the existence of a business cycle or any variety of cycle, then we should be far more flexible with the economic policies we pursue such that if the conditions of the economy change so should the policy. Obviously, we are limited by the factor of time, as our response can be too late or too early. However, a response would be sufficient in the first place. The willingness to consider heterodox economics moved use on from mercantilism, I believe that it is once again time to apply it to actual policy rather than leave it in books of theory.

 

I have begun reading a new book: The Wealth of Ideas: A History of Economic Thought
It is not exactly a light read, but some very interesting ideas and concepts all economics related of course.